In this prediction they also predict that Obama will LOSE the Popular Vote. So not only does he lose in the Electoral Collage, but also loses the direct vote, with Romney gaining 52.9% of the Popular Vote to Obama’s 47.1%.
According to their conclusion, Romney sweeps most, but not all, of the battleground states and easily clinches the victory with a clear majority of winning states.
It’ll be interesting to see how it pans out and if the study is accurate. Based on the data, Romney should win by a landslade. The study basically says that the economy is so horrible that if Barack Obama wins, it goes against all logic and all historical precedent (essentially).
ROMNEY RYAN 2012! :D
A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.
“The key is the economy”, says political science professors Kenneth Bickers of CU-Boulder and Michael Berry of CU Denver. Their prediction model stresses economic data from the 50 states and the District of Columbia, including both state and national unemployment figures as well as changes in real per capita income, among other factors.
“Based on our forecasting model, it becomes clear that the president is in electoral trouble,” said Bickers, also director of the CU in DC Internship Program.
According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.
“For the last eight presidential elections, this model has correctly predicted the winner,” said Berry. “The economy has seen some improvement since President Obama took office. What remains to be seen is whether voters will consider the economy in relative or absolute terms. If it’s the former, the president may receive credit for the economy’s trajectory and win a second term. In the latter case, Romney should pick up a number of states Obama won in 2008.”
Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.